Along came Modi

You may analogize Pakistan-India relations with a roller coaster ride, only if the roller coaster you are referring to is a broken train, on an eroded and unusually bumpy track.

These nuclear armed countries with a volatile history of conflicts have a knack for keeping the world at its toes. Ever since the nuclear face off began in 1998, it seems not a matter of if but when the world would sit in audience to the first nuclear war. Many defense analysts from around the world consider nuclear armament of both sides to be a conflict avoiding factor, but India may have found a rebuttal to this theory in Mr. Narendra Modi. An Indo-Pak war not only seems possible, but imminent, if Mr. Modi is allowed to have his way. Modi may be seen as a statesman in some Indian circles, but as far as India-Pakistan relations are concerned, he may be nothing more than a diplomatic failure.

Having already ordered the arrangements for a carnival to celebrate the 1965 war with Pakistan, Modi now speaks against Pakistan while on tour in Bangladesh. Mr. Modi alleged Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism and also seemed to ‘reminisce’ about the 1971 war, during his speech at Bangabandhu International Convention. While in Bangladesh, Modi is said to have accepted India’s role in the conspiracy to divide East and West Pakistan, as it was, according to him, the wish of every Indian. He boasted about Indian military’s involvement in the 1971 war and India’s success in carving out Bangladesh. Yet he and his government alleges Pakistan of doing kind of the same thing in Kashmir.

The to and fro allegations between the two countries has gotten us nowhere. India blaming Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and Pakistan blaming India’s Research and Analyses Wing (RAW) for anti state activities within each other’s territories is a ‘my word against yours’ conundrum with no possible productivity. The honest fact of the matter is that each may have contributed to the distrust that prevails today. What India did in East Pakistan, Pakistan may have tried to reciprocate in Kashmir and what Pakistan is alleged to be doing in Kashmir may be being reciprocated in Balochistan by India.

The prime bone of contention between the two countries is one of the most beautiful, and simultaneously unfortunate, land called Kashmir. A conflict born parallel to the birth of Pakistan, it has been the cause of three Indo-Pak wars and countless skirmishes. Each conflict ending in a truce that in turn ended in another conflict.

The Tashkent Agreement, which ended the conflict borne out of 1965 war, was ripped to shreds by the 1971 war, which then ended in the Simla Agreement. 1999’s Lahore Declaration was swallowed, soon after its signing, by the Kargil conflict. Bilateral relations and talks have seen many ups and downs, and have always revolved around the Kashmir issue.

The start of the Composite Dialogue Process (CDP) in 2004, re-lit the flame of hope for peace and cordial relations between India and Pakistan. Borders saw withdrawal of troops, contemplations and discussions on a joint anti terrorism mechanism began and several other prospective congenial avenues were opened. Progressing at a snail’s pace, but progressing nevertheless, CDP was halted in 2008 after the Mumbai attacks which resulted in deaths of 160 innocent Indian civilians who joined a long list of victims of terrorism – a list which contains thousands of innocent Pakistani civilians. India, as usual, promptly jumped to blame Pakistan for the attacks, and despite Pakistan’s admission that the attacks may have been partly planned on Pakistani soil but not by Pakistan, India stood firmly by its allegations effectively extinguishing any and all flames of hope and reigniting hostilities at the borders. In 2013, Pakistan’s Prime Minister and his Indian counterpart met in New York and yet again decided to end hostilities.
In 2014, India held its general elections and along came Modi. Like several political entities and leaders on both sides of the border, Modi also gained a lot by his “hard stance” against the “arch rival”. But Modi’s venom against Pakistan was not packed and shelved after the elections. In the first year of Modi’s premiership, Modi was quoted as saying:

“This is not the time for talks (boli)…but for bullets (goli)..”

His defence minister made the following statement:

“our conventional strength is more than theirs (referring to Pakistan) and therefore if they persist with this, the cost to them would be unaffordable”

And the following admission was attributed, by David J. Karl, to a senior government official in reference to skirmishes at the border:

“Prime Minister’s office has instructed us to ensure that Pakistan suffers deep and heavy losses”.

Statements and hostile gestures kept coming in, and the hope for peace in the region died a little with every one of them. Modi managed to ignore the very friendly gesture by Pakistan when its Prime Minister accepted Modi’s invitation to attend his swearing in. Mr. Nawaz Sharif even went out of the way and agreed to Modi’s advice to not meet Hurriyat members while in India. This diplomatic gesture was misconstrued as a sign of weakness and the Indian government got carried away asking the Pakistani High Commissioner (PHC) to stop meeting Hurriyat members or face seizure of foreign secretary level bilateral talks. In his genius, Modi overplayed his hand, PHC did not adhere to this unnecessary and unwarranted demand and thus bilateral talks were halted, yet again, not because of a war or a conflict – for a change – but owing to a diplomatic blunder: Modi’s first of many.

Mr. Modi’s hard stance against Pakistan and Muslims may incite enough sentiments and bag enough votes, but will not, can not, bring a desperately needed and long anticipated end to India-Pakistan enmity. Political parties may stand to gain from these hostile attitudes, institutions may benefit from anti state covert activities, but the Indian and Pakistani people, whom they swear to serve and protect, get nothing but detriment in this stretched-spring rivalry.

CPEC and India’s lunacy inducing Paranoia

A mammoth 46 billion dollar project, stretching over 3000 kilometers from Gawadar to Xinjiang, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has the potential to make Pakistan’s economy grow by leaps and bounds. The project that consists of construction and up gradation of roads, oil and gas pipelines, railway tracks and an international airport in Gawadar, promises to make Pakistan an economic power in the world, and Gawadar; a trade and economic hub of the region.

CPEC does not promise wonders for just Pakistan, China stands to gain just as much, if not more, from this initiative. China will gain easier access to the Middle East and Africa, shorter routes and lesser costs will greatly benefit energy importing China. A land-locked Western China will become economically vibrant which would in turn bring development to the region and subsequently eliminate militancy and unrest caused by movements like Uyghur’s Xinjiang Conflict.

The impact of CPEC would, however, be less obvious and visible on the already booming economy of China than on Pakistan’s struggling economy. While for China it is another project that adds to its status as an economic giant, for Pakistan it is THE project that has the potential to put Pakistan on the track to a self sustaining, stable and strong economy. No bilateral treaty in Pakistan’s 67 years history has benefited us more than what CPEC promises.

Then, no country is more obsessed with Pakistan than India. India’s paranoia and lunacy inducing obsession with Pakistan has found a new face under Mr. Narendra Modi’s leadership. This obsession is not mutual. Our Prime Minister or leaders of the second and third largest parties did not feel the urge to make remarks about India in their election campaigns. Our federal ministers and advisors have not, until very recently, commented on Indian Research and Analyses Wing’s (RAW) involvement in covert activities within our borders, as opposed to India blaming everything from a bombing to their Prime Minister’s bowel movement on our Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) for years.

Modi is very open about his nationalism and Hindu fanaticism, his security advisor is very blunt about his intentions towards Pakistan. Under Modi, India seems to have done away with subtleties and is now openly expressing its designs to further weaken Pakistan by all means necessary. Modi, behaving typically like a jealous toddler, has termed CPEC as “unacceptable” for India. He did so in his incredibly awkward, over excited, selfie inclusive, posing and proposing visit to China, but the Chinese President snubbed his unsolicited opinion like any prudent adult would snub the tantrum of a spoilt toddler. Modi has now repeated his unsolicited opinion through one of his ministers.

It appears that Modi’s cabinet deliberated in length over its stance on CPEC. Of course it was pre decided that they would oppose it, but on what grounds. They couldn’t just say “because we say so” or “because we don’t want Pakistan to prosper”. Honest as these statements would be, they just wouldn’t be diplomatically correct. So the geniuses came with the stance that CPEC passes through Pakistan held Kashmir, and since Kashmir is disputed, we cannot accept CPEC. And they now wait, hoping this ludicrous stance would find an international audience. If you want to find Indian supported local opponents to CPEC in Pakistan, look for an equally insane stance; some Baloch nationalists have spoken against CPEC on grounds that since it would bring heavy investment and development to the region, there will be consequent migrations from different parts of Pakistan, hence rights of Gawadar locals may be infringed.

India would not stop here though. China has already warned Pakistan of RAW’s intentions of sabotaging CPEC with help from local militants. Pakistan has only recently broken its decade’s old silence on RAW and India’s involvement in terrorist activities in Pakistan. India is, undoubtedly our bitter rival. Bitterness, undoubtedly resides more in India than in Pakistan. It is natural in a way, Pakistan broke off from ‘mother India’, and no one can feel the pain of that disintegration more than a nationalist, anti-Muslim Hindu like Modi. After years of struggle India got its atomic bomb and gloated over its strategic and military supremacy over Pakistan, only to be retorted by Pakistan’s very own nuclear weapon. It then satisfied its self with its economic supremacy over Pakistan and now CPEC stands to hamper that too. So India’s cry baby reaction is somewhat justified, not prudent, sane, reasonable or just, but somewhat justified.

Not to be ignored are the “other hostile agencies” mentioned in Chinese intelligence communiqué to Pakistan. While India looks jealously at Pakistan benefiting from CPEC, there is United States concern over the boost to Chinese economy and strategic access. RAW and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) may work to disrupt and sabotage, unfortunately they will find local help from purchasable entities and individuals from within Pakistan too.

But I have a feeling this project will go ahead and will be completed. Pakistan does have the ability to safeguard its interests, identify and shun anti-state elements from among ourselves and defend against any foreign covert or overt aggression. Pakistan will prosper and CPEC will play its due role in our progress, because we are more concerned about our prosperity than causing detriment to any of our neighbors.