Political Fiction

If at all there is anyone behind Qadri and Khan’s protest movement, that someone would have in his mind one of two objectives.

One being the end of Sharif regime or, as PMLN likes to call it, PMLN government, through an indirect intervention. A care taker setup taking charge of the country and holding of general elections after electoral reforms, census and adherence to other popular political demands.

Second; to build enough pressure to make the dictator style PM give up his independence and discretionary powers in local and international policy making and be prepared to take dictation from someone.

The movements would have been orchestrated in the exact same manner, only with varying outcomes. However the final outcome for the tools used to achieve these objectives would be hugely different.

In scenario one, Qadri and Imran Khan would both return successful from Islamabad as saviors of the downtrodden. Both would have some role to play in the setup replacing the Sharif regime. Imran Khan could even go on to win the next general elections, while Qadri returns to his homeland after playing a significant role in the transition phase. Both would gain much ground in political relevance and significance.

In the second scenario however, both of them would be ditched by ‘someone’ soon after gaining control of a puppet government. This would mean political murder of both these leaders. It will take them a long time to recover from this setback. But ‘someone’ may be kind enough to see them off with a parting gift to help them save face. That parting gift can be the Prime Minister’s resignation. This will ensure that both leaders return from Islamabad under the illusion and public perception of success. But in the long run they may not have any role to play in the new puppet regime. In case of a resignation, Ch. Nisar may well be the new Prime Minister, prepared to work in cooperation and collaboration with ‘someone’ who is a good friend of his. Under his leadership the Parliament will implement certain electoral reforms that will improve, not perfect, the electoral process. Pakistan may see a clear shift in its foreign policy that may include distancing itself from India and the US, and cozying up to China and Russia. Terrorism will be addressed with a firmer hand.

Between the two scenarios, the second one somehow seems more beneficial for Pakistan as well as ‘someone’. For in case of the first, I do not think ‘someone’ can rely on Qadri, for his dubious credentials and Khan, for his immaturity and tendency to be impulsive.

However, a puppet government whose strings are in your hands is far more reliable. Also opting for the second option saves Pakistan from creating a dangerous precedent of ousting a government and Parliament by use of brute public force.

But who’s to say what’s to happen. For of course ‘someone’ is not behind all this and these are just fictional words from a conspiracy theorist.

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